25 days to the election

Allawi came out today to confirm the elections will take place on the 30th, and violence in the Sunni regions will not have an impact. Well, will not have an impact on the election taking place, but most assuredly will impact the results. Then there is news Wednesday of more violence:

A suicide attacker blew up an explosives-laden car Wednesday outside a police academy south of Baghdad during a graduation ceremony, killing 20 people. A second car bomber killed five Iraqi policemen - bringing the death toll to at least 90 so far this week in surging violence aimed at derailing this month's elections.

The article notes that it is speculation that makes up hope once the election occurs, the violence will end. An optimistic view to be sure, but not as optimistic as this guy:

[Maj. Gen. Mohammed Abdullah] Al-Shahwani said attacks could affect Iraq's Jan. 30 elections and that some may stay away, worried about violence.

"Whether these attacks would increase or decrease, this depends on the elections result. But our expectation, as a security organ, is that the attacks will recede and end in one year," he said.

It would be nice to see some reasoning behind these claims, but right now they make little sense. I'll start the clock, however. One year.