The Corner of reality

Or non reality:

THE VIRGINIA GOVERNOR'S RACE [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I just don't buy the line, emerging over the weekend, that Tim Kaine, the Democrat, is favored to win. Jerry Kilgore, the Republican, has made some mistakes--refusing to take a no-tax-hike pledge notable among them. But the Democrats seem to have more wishful thinking that solid poll data behind them.

Here's the latest poll numbers on the VA Governor's race from Real Clear Politics. Their average of recent polls shows Kaine up by 4.4%.

And while we are at it, from Power Line, October 31st:

These numbers from the Rasmussen poll are interesting. Bush bottomed out at 40% on Friday, after sliding steadily downhill through the month of October. Since then, however, he has bounced back to 45%, as of today.

I suspect that the improvement is mostly among Republicans, and relates primarily to Harriet Miers' withdrawal. Over the next few days, Bush's ratings should rise further in response to his nomination of Sam Alito.

Thursday, November 3rd's Rasmussen approval numbers for Bush? 42%.

Who's out of touch with reality again?

*UPDATE* Ramesh Ponnuru on elcetion eve:

Last week, I said that I didn't buy the polls showing Democrat Tim Kaine ahead of Republican Jerry Kilgore. I mainly had in mind the Washington Post poll, which has, as the Republicans have been saying, tended to underpredict Republican performance. But the evidence that Kaine is ahead has continued to come in both from other polls and from the general consensus of Va. political observers.