Jobs 8-ball 2005: It doesn't look good

So the odds are good that Bush will become the first President since Truman to lose jobs for his country in a four year term. Too bad for us the next four look to be getting off to a bad start as well:

Corporate America is gun-shy about making significant spending increases in 2005, as high fuel costs, geopolitical concerns and memories of recent overspending loom over budget plans for next year.

Spending by S&P 500 companies on capital -- such as new technology and replacing equipment -- has increased this year by 5 percent after a two-year decline, Standard & Poor's market equity analyst Howard Silverblatt said.

Even so, the increase is less than in 2001 and falls short of expectations fanned by the record amount of cash U.S. companies have piled up from strong profit growth. Order activity for capital spending so far does not indicate a big wave of hiring or a capex bubble coming soon, said John Linehan, a portfolio manager for T. Rowe Price's Value Fund.

"My sense is that it's a continuation of the same -- a slow steady grind rather than a resurgence in hiring or spending," Linehan said.

Half the chief executives queried in the latest quarterly Business Roundtable survey planned on increasing capital spending, and 40 percent said they would boost hiring in the first-half of 2005. But 20 percent said they would cut employment during that period, up from 12 percent expecting lower employment in the last survey in September.