Bilbray/Busby lessons

I think there's one thing that everyone should remember as they look for wisdom to draw from California's 50th district battle, ultimately ending in Bran Bilbray defeating Francine Busby by a 49-45 margin last night: not every district in America is like this.

I realize pundits are paid, and blogger want to look smart, by sussing out conclusions from one race that would apply to the national races this fall. And if each district in America had the same voter registration, geographical positioning, and candidate choices as CA-50, then this certainly would be a problem for Democrats this fall. But that ain't the way things are.

Republican's won't be able to dump $4.5 million dollars into every district they hold a 44-30 voter registration edge in. Democrats will not be running in a district with a disgraced Republican on the way out. Republican's won't have the ability to turn a misstatement into political gold as they could with Busby's "papers" statement. The Democratic upticket battle for Governor was a snoozer. I could go on and on.

Was it disappointing that Busby lost? You bet. And each side will spin her showing for all they are worth. It's what you would expect, and frankly, it's one of the thing that turns me off about politics and why I've become reluctant to blog.

Will Democrats win back the House and Senate this fall? I'm doubtful. But another difference between this election and the one four months from now is that there is still the potential of four months of bad news for Bush and Republicans. Or maybe things all get better - Iraq improves, wages grow for average Americans, and gas prices fall. And Democrats still don't seem to have it together overall.

But blog readers, here's what you want to hear: If you lean Democrat, Busby's strong showing is a sign of weakened Republicans. If you lean Republican, then Bilbray's win proves that the Democrats aren't likely to do much better this fall, either. Both sides can be happy drawing totally opposite conclusions from the same results.

Spin on politicians. Spin on.