Powerline's wishful thinking

The folks at Powerline over the weekend wrote:

The conventional wisdom is that President Bush is in the doghouse with the American people, his poll ratings plummeting farther every time they are reported. However, some of those polls, like this one by CBS, seem designed to generate those very headlines. To get any reliable sense of the trend, you almost have to follow a poll that is done on a consistent basis. One of the best of such polls is Scott Rasmussen's.

Rasmussen shows President Bush climbing from his low point in October, to a current approval rating of 46%. That's his best this month, and, as Rasmussen says, it might be statistical noise. If it's for real, it's good news; 46% isn't great, but it's well out of the sub-40% danger territory. But, in any event, the upward trend since last month is good news for Republicans.

And at the Weekly Standard today, they remove the claim about "statistical noise," noting:

Polls that are administered consistently over time are starting to show a significant rebound in the president's standing. In the >Rasmussen Poll, Bush's approval rating hit its nadir in October, but has rebounded steadily since. Currently, it stands at a respectable 46 percent. More important than the number, however, is the trend: There can be little doubt that the administration is on the upswing.

Hmmm... The Rasmussen approval rating for George Bush on Monday, November 14th? Back down to 43%, near his low point for his presidency. So much for that rebound, eh guys? Or maybe this is some sort of reverse rebound, and for two days, the public came around to the President and then remembered why they didn't like him again.

The folks at Powerline are clearly trying to create some false momentum for their man at this point. You may recall an earlier post from the 3rd of November discussing their view of the coming Bush bounce in polls do to the withdrawal of Harriet Miers. That, as you can tell by the numbers, did not happen either.

But, I think, it's only a matter of time before they get it right, and Bush's numbers start to rebound for one reason or another that we just haven't seen yet. So keep forecasting a bounce, Powerline. One of these days, you'll get it right.

*UPDATE* Chris Bowers at MyDD has another take:

When asking their new favorite question about how Bush can or will recover, it is important for members of the media to be aware of the historic nature of Bush's unpopularity. No President to reach these lows has ever recovered. It is just as important for Democratic officials and activists around the country to realize this as well. When faced with the persistent pundit question as to how Bush can or will recover, the Democratic response must be simple, accurate, and to the point: Bush can't recover. No President to reach these lows has ever recovered to once again have a functioning presidency. All of his political capital has been spent. By all historical comparisons, Bush's Presidency is over.

Go read the whole thing.