Moral values revisited

Are you still one of those people who believe that moral values were the reason that Democrats lost the election? When will you learn?

"Moral values" voters were not the key to understanding President's Bush's election victory, according to an analysis by University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs.

Jacobs argues that changes in the partisan makeup of the electorate and the difficulty of defeating an incumbent president during an economic recovery were more critical than the moral-values factor.

Jacobs points out the huge splits between the candidates on moral values and terrorism (for Bush) and the economy and Iraq (for Kerry) make it dangerous to point to one of them as the deciding factor. He also points to Minnesota as an example of a place where more voters claimed moral values than in the nation ut still went Blue for John Kerry. Finally, he notes that the majority view on issues like abortion and gay marriage are in line with liberal ideals, hinting that instead that Democrats need to do a better job of sharing their views with the voters.

Jacobs also presents some good news for Dems:

Despite all the evidence of growing Republican strength, Jacobs found indicators of possible better days for Democrats:

• The Democratic base is unified. Kerry got the support of 89 percent of self-identified Democrats. The fear that candidates to his left, such as Ralph Nader, would bleed Kerry's support didn't materialize.

• Kerry won among moderates and independents. More voters (45 percent) described themselves as moderate than either conservative (34) or liberal (21). Kerry carried the majority of self-described moderates 54 to 45 percent . Among independents, Kerry won by just one percentage point nationally. But in the key swing states of Florida and Ohio, Kerry won the independent vote by margins of 16 and 19 percentage points.

• Kerry won a majority of late-deciding voters. The 11 percent of the electorate who said they made up their minds in the final week broke 52 to 46 percent for Kerry.

• The environment issue might be headed into Democrat-friendly territory. Support for Bush's Iraq policies dropped sharply. Concern over the cost and availability of health care is rising. Of those who said they were very concerned about health care, 58 percent voted for Kerry.

Jacobs full anaylsis can be read here, and I myself will read it when I get to a faster computer with a faster connection. Feel free to offer your own analysis as well.