The Race is on

Kerry kicks ass in the debate, Newsweek balances their voter distribution, and Kerry takes the lead in the poll, 47-45. Republicans now complain about the change of the party weights (which evens Republicans and Democrats at approximately 32%), even though they were most pleased when the unfair balance gave Bush a huge lead.

Let's get internal:

Kerry's perceived victory may be attributed to the fact that, by a wide margin (62 percent to 26 percent), debate watchers felt the senator came across as more confident than the president. More than half (56 percent) also see Kerry has having a better command of the facts than Bush (37 percent). As a result, the challenger's favorability ratings (52 percent, versus 40 percent unfavorable) are better than Bush's, who at 49 percent (and 46 percent unfavorable), has dipped below the halfway mark for the first time since July. Kerry, typically characterized as aloof and out of touch by his opponents, came across as more personally likeable than Bush (47 percent to the president's 41 percent).

In fact, Kerry's numbers have improved across the board, while Bush's vulnerabilities have become more pronounced. The senator is seen as more intelligent and well-informed (80 percent, up six points over last month, compared to Bush's steady 59 percent); as having strong leadership skills (56 percent, also up 6 points, but still less than Bush's 62 percent) and as someone who can be trusted to make the right calls in an international crisis (51 percent, up five points and tied with Bush).

Meanwhile, Bush's approval ratings have dropped to below the halfway mark (46 percent) for the first time since the GOP convention in late August. Nearly half of all voters (48 percent) say they do not want to see Bush re-elected, while 46 percent say they do. Still, a majority of voters (55 percent versus 29 percent) believe the president will be re-hired on Nov. 2.

Great news all around for Kerry.

Dave Pell at Electablog discusses why Kerry was perceived to do so well:

From the beginning of this campaign, the Bush strategy has been to recreate Kerry as a wimp, a person to be ridiculed, a weakling who would not protect us, a heathen who would ban our bible and pillage our bank accounts, and one who is not fit for office. Cheney likes to call him a wannabe. Nothing was sacred.

And after months of this nonsense they thought they could pump up expectations about Kerry in a few days.

This Bush strategy of character assassination went overboard a long time ago and it finally backfired on Thursday night. It cost the Bushies the debate, their built-up lead, and quite possibly the election.

Casual political observers expected nothing out of Kerry on Thursday night. And from Bush they expected the gallant, brave leader of men that the President's speech writers and campaign operatives had carefully manufactured out of words, ads, and hand-picked crowds along the campaign trail.

By the time Thursday night came around, viewers were sitting down to watch what would turn out to become not just a Kerry win, but a classic David vs Goliath match-up. Except in this case, Goliath seemed out of sorts, and instead of a single stone, David seemed to have an entire bunker-busting nuclear arsenal being shot from his sling.

The Bush team hoped to win this election by erasing the real John Kerry and creating a weak and wilting flip-flopper. Instead they created a monster. And now they will try to regain lost ground by attacking Kerry character yet again.

Only this time, who will believe them.

It's only one poll, but it does the heart good for now to see Kerry in the lead. Hopefully, more polls will echo that sentiment.