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Democracycoprs, reports on the election (pdf)

In this survey, we tested the Bush message and vision, reflecting above all the
speech he gave at the convention. This is his most recent formulation of his approach to security, the economy and an ownership society. We counterpoised that positioning to a Kerry positioning – reflecting Kerry’s convention speech, the campaign’s theme (stronger at home, respected abroad), Kerry’s various speeches over the past few weeks and some of the themes long part of the Democratic approach this year, including building a stronger middle class. It also includes the three policy areas that Kerry has emphasized since Super Tuesday, keeping jobs in America, getting health care costs down and achieving independence from Middle East oil.

In the Democracy Corps poll, a Kerry message defeats the Bush message by 7-
points, which is 10 points better than the race between Kerry and Bush. Among ind ependents, it wins by 18 points and in the battleground states, by 15.

Those results are the most important finding of this survey. Amidst the fog of
conflicting poll numbers, convention bounces and many distractions, voters remain ready to respond to strong Democratic campaigns in 2004. Democrats should put their energies into this critique, choice and vision, recognizing that big change is possible. Kerry can clearly move back into the lead in this race.