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“This administration is populated by people who’ve spent their careers bashing government. They’re not just small-government conservatives—they’re Grover Norquist, strangle-it-in-the-bathtub conservatives. It’s a cognitive disconnect for them to be able to do something well in an arena that they have so derided and reviled all these years.”

Senator Hillary Clinton

Thursday, June 17, 2004

Someone explain to me "strong economy"

According the the official George W. Bush Blog, the economy is looking strong in Ohio.

Now having read quite a few blogs in the past month, I know that people will try and cut out parts of the article they do not want you to see. They like to flaunt their case and hope the portion of the article is all that you read without thinking about what it is they claim. So let's examine the article the Bush campaign links to. Here's the part that is quoted:
The economy of a four-state region that includes all of Ohio remained strong over the last six weeks, the Cleveland branch of the Federal Reserve reports.

The Cleveland Fed's "biege book" report, made Wednesday, mirrored the central bank's national findings, which concluded the U.S. economy "continued to expand" in April and May.

The Cleveland branch oversees the Federal Reserve's fourth district, which covers Ohio, eastern Kentucky, western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. It compiles its beige book by surveying business executives in the area.

Looks good for Bush, right? Well, first I'd like to point out that the Bush campaign tries to use this report to say that things are looking up in Ohio. One would have to ignore the fact that this covers parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia as well. Truth is, things in Ohio are not so rosy. The last unemployment numbers? Up in April from March. A few clicks on the US Dept of Labor website finds that all states included in this forecast around Ohio have unemployment rates at least .5% lower than Ohio itself.

But this report is from June, and those numbers are from April. Fair enough. What does the article that the Bushies quote from say about job growth?
Hiring, the companies told the Cleveland Fed, is "likely to be limited for the remainder of the year."

Hiring is to remain limited. That is an example of Bush claim of the economy "remaining strong." Virtually no new job growth.

Other points of interest in the article?
This time around, many companies in the district reported increases in raw materials costs during the spring, which they largely passed on to customers.

Awesome news for the average working man! The "strong growth" is allowing businesses to pass costs along to the consumer. Things will cost more for the average working man! Great news, according to Bush!
Production levels remained flat or rose for manufacturers in the district, with most producers expecting modest growth over the next few months.

Now don't get me wrong, modest growth is better than no growth at all. But it does not seem to be a sign of strong economy that the Bushies claim.
Retailers reported steady sales over the last six weeks, but specialty apparel stores and department stores said sales subsided after a spring surge. Discount retailers reported slight increases in sales. Retailers reported fewer markdowns and promotions, compared with last year, which increased margins.

Ah, retail sales were steady. Strong growth! And, good news for buyers, in that fewer markdowns and sales means the average working man is spending more for things than he paid last year, which drove up profit margins for retailers! Awesome! Any wage increase the average worker earned is now helping stores increase their profit margins.

That's the kind of "strong economy" the average worker in Ohio wants to hear about: Limited job growth and higher prices.

*UPDATE* To be fair, it is my struggle to understand why these factors would lead to claims of a "strong economy." My only problem is that the numbers, especially in Ohio, seem to contradict that fact. But Bush can claim "strong growth," as the federal reserve say so in this corridor. Just not specific to Ohio itself.

*UPDATE, TOO* Never let it be said that I cannot admit mistakes. New unemployment numbers appeared shortly after this post, and it showed great news for Buckeyes, as the unemployment rate for May dropped in Ohio to 5.4%, putting Ohio more in line with its neighbors. The link is nonspecific about types of jobs, and right now I do not have the time to look into it (another perk of the 12 hour work week.) Stay tuned.