Virginia is for Kerry lovers

Nice T-shirt idea for the campaign, eh?

John Kerry's campaign has decided to put Virginia in play. Well, try to put it in play.

Democrat John Kerry will spend roughly $17 million on campaign advertising in June and television commercials will air in Republican-leaning Virginia, as well as on channels targeting blacks and Hispanics.

The presumptive Democratic nominee will be the only presidential candidate on the air in Virginia, making a foray into a state that President Bush solidly won in 2000.

Now I can't help but think of the Democrat's glee when Bush announced that he was going to sump money into California. And the reasons are eeriely similar. Virginia has a Democratic governor, California's claims Republican. More conservative areas of California have seen madcap population growth, just as the DC areas of Virginia have, more typically a democratic stronghold.

The real reason, of course is money. By forcing a campaign to spend in a state they saw as uncontested, it draws funds away from the key battleground states. It was a strategy that the Gore campaign wanted to try in 2000, but ran into a lack of funding.

The difference between the two is Bush has actually bitten. The Kerry campaign shrugged it's shoulders at the Bush pronoucement, saying if the race got closer in California, they may start ads in the last few week. However the Bush campaign has bought ads in traditional strong hold Colorado, and had until recently been buying time in Louisiana as well.

The Kerry's and their supporters will put on the more aggressive face, however:

Kerry advisers think Virginia has become more of a northern state because of population shifts in the late 1990s and early 2000s and that Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran, can do well along the coast, which has a heavy military presence.

[Virginia's governor Mark] Warner agreed that the landscape is ripe for a Democratic presidential win, saying parts of rural Virginia are still feeling the sting of the economic downturn.

Warner said in an interview Thursday that the campaign's early investment in his state "demonstrates that this is going to be a national effort and that the South has the potential to be very competitive."

Too be successful, of course, Kerry needs to see results, and not just in the head to head competition. Positive ads need to see the public's view of Kerry become more positive. In the meaantime, I would try and schedule an appearance in at least a couple of these states again, touting that he cares enough to bring his message to the voters while Bush fights more for his political life than the people.If this doesn't happen within the next few weeks, then there is no reason to continue to draw from those battle field states. And if that doesn't work, then you have to back out. It's a risky gamble, to be sure, but so is four more years of Bush.