Did someone say Social Security?

The real crappy part about being at work in a place where there is no access to news and the internet is the amount of things you miss out on.

For example, the Social Security trustees report was released this morning, and I had no idea about it until just a few minutes ago. I have a feeling this will have been well covered on other blogs, such as MaxSpeak and Angry Bear, and I've already read a few analysis about it.

Before I comment on any of that, though, can I say how disappointing it is to see the AP adopt the President's "going broke" rhetoric. Social Security will never go broke unless the government removes the Social Security tax completely.

Anyway, remember when the CBO actually pushed back the date of insolvency, no one gave a damn. Now that the date has come forward, the media fell over itself to praise Bush's vision. Even if it is a bunch of crap.

Looking at other's take on the report, the Bush team of trustees altered some of the numbers (such as immigration) to bring the downfall date closer.

Dean Baker points out that part of the problem is Bush's economy is not as hale as it was projected to be:

The economy’s weakness caused the trustees to revise down the cumulative trust fund surplus projected for 2013 by approximately $100 billion (adjusted for new inflation projections) compared to the projection in the 2004 report.

Specifically, the 2004 report had projected 1.7 percent employment growth in 2004, actual growth turned out to be just 1.1 percent. The 2004 report had also projected a 2.4 percentage increase in real wages for the year, the actual increase was just 1.2 percent. The 2005 report also shows a somewhat worse picture for the next few years, as the economy continues to recover slowly from the 2001 recession.

It is important to realize that even after the trust fund is projected to be depleted in 2041, the program would still be able to pay a substantial benefit from its annual tax. If the projections prove exactly right, then the payable benefit to a person retiring at normal retirement age in 2042 would still be about 7 percent higher on average than the benefit received by current retirees.

Finally for now, Bradford Plummer points out that, despite the date change, Social Security is actually healthier than it was last year, and he's got the chart to prove it.