Simon Says

Roger Simon in a piece a few days ago, discussing the imminent collapse of the Democratic party:

A swing of three million votes is gigantic in our society where party allegiances are formed in childhood and reinforced by an omnipresent media. We can see the primitiveness of these allegiances in the remaining popularity of Howard Dean, a man who a very few years ago presented himself as a pro-gun centrist, jumping around like a re-upped version of Jerry Rubin to appeal to a segment of the Democratic Party that hasn't changed one view about anything in thirty-five years. But... and here's the crux... these people are not that exceptional. Few of us change our views over a lifetime.

Yet, three million did.

Which of course, is a bunch of crap. Turnout was the key, and the GOP managed to turn out more voters that the Democrats did. Looking at the exit polling, the trade off of Bush to Kerry voters and Gore to Bush voters is almost even. So while a group did change their mind to vote for Bush, an almost equal number changed their mind and voted for Kerry.

Here's the numbers after some quick and hopefully correct math. 37% of voters who chose Gore in 2000 came out to vote again this year, which based on Dave Leip's page would account for 45 million votes. Bush won 10% of those, or 4.5 million. 43% of voters who chose Bush in 2000 came out again, totaling 52.5 million votes, and Kerry managed to win 9% of those. That equals 4.7 million votes.

In other words, more votes actually switched their allegance to John Kerry than chose to jump from Gore to Bush. While Simon's assertion is technically correct, albeit a low estimate, perhaps he could spend some time lamenting the Bush voters that changed their mind and supported a Democratic candidate for President.

But I doubt he'll want to change his views.