Pre-debate spin

Obviously while at work, I couldn't blog about some of the pre-debate spin. It's kind of funny to look at it now.

Here's Rush. You can find the link if you want to (my bold):

Something's going to happen tonight that's going to trigger him (doing Kerry impression) "Why am I here? I shouldn't have to put up with this! I'm more effective than this," or whatever. He's going to look sullen, sunken, may slouch a bit because he's embarrassed of his height, I don't know, something. He's got a much tougher row to hoe because he's got to act like somebody he isn't, because if he acts like the person he is then that really gets to the bottom line.

Actually:

Time and again, when Bush found himself attacked with facts and figures, his facial expression ranged from frustration to anger; what the pundits call 'demeanor evidence' was certainly in the incumbent's disfavor.

Washington Post's Jim Hoagland:

The rules constrain Kerry more than Bush. Unless the challenger is prepared to "cheat" Thursday night -- to go up to and even across the lines of prescribed and proscribed behavior -- the devil in these details will tilt the first debate into an exchange of stump speeches.

That prospect delights the Bush camp.

"We've got the better campaign speech and the only candidate who is good at delivering one," says a Bush campaign insider.

I bet that insider is surprised by the polls on who won the debate.

Gallup: Kerry 53, Bush 37
ABC News: Kerry 45, Bush 36
CBS News: Kerry 43, Bush 28 (the so called "uncommited" voters)

Even conservative bloggers seem to agree Kerry won.

*UPDATE* Even more from CBS. It's all good:

More than half of the uncommitted voters said that their image of Kerry had changed for the better as a result. Just 14 percent said their opinion of Kerry had gotten worse, and one-third did not change their opinion.

Mr. Bush, on the other hand, saw very little improvement in his image. Twenty-two percent have improved their image of Mr. Bush as a result of the debate, but just as many said their views of the president are now worse than before.

On the issue of ability to handle Iraq, Kerry was the clear winner. He had a 38-point jump by this measure. A majority of the uncommitted viewers, 52 percent, said after the debate that Kerry had a clear plan for Iraq. Thirty-nine percent said this about Mr. Bush. Before the debate, few thought either had a clear plan for dealing with Iraq.

The panel of uncommitted debate watchers evaluated the debate in real-time, marking favorable or unfavorable opinions of what they heard moment by moment.

Kerry's evaluations rose as he assailed the Bush administration's planning for the war and for asserting that the administration allowed 90 percent of the costs of the war to fall on the U.S. Kerry did especially well with women when he said that Mr. Bush had cut police at home while sending money to Iraq.

Women responded positively in the real-time evaluation when Kerry talked about strengthening U.S. ties with allies and the policy of pre-emption. When Kerry talked about finding al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, both men and women responded positively.

Still, more women think Mr. Bush can be trusted to protect the country from a terrorist attack than Kerry, by 62-52 percent. Seventy-one percent of men said Kerry could be trusted to protect the country, while 66 percent said the same about Mr. Bush.

Kerry also significantly improved his likeability. Six in 10 members of the sample now say Kerry is someone whom they would like personally, up from 45 percent before the debate. Fifty-six percent would like Bush personally. More women said they liked Kerry than Mr. Bush – while men were equally likely to say each candidate was someone they would like.

In the horserace, Kerry now leads Mr. Bush among uncommitted debate watchers by 38-28 percent as their choice for president in November. But nearly a third remain undecided.